Robusta coffee prices in the Vietnamese market—which accounts for up to 95% of national output—surged 15% in March 2025, averaging VND 58,000 per kg, according to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA). This price level has surpassed the 2024 peak and is approaching the historical high set in October 2024. The primary driver is an unexpected drop in supply from the Central Highlands provinces, the key coffee-growing region accounting for over 80% of the country's planted area.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the 2024/2025 crop year coffee output is estimated at only 1.45 million tons, down 8% year-on-year, due to prolonged drought during the flowering period and climate change. Additionally, rising input costs such as fertilizers and fuel have led many farmers to reduce cultivation area, shifting to more profitable crops. This phenomenon has exacerbated the shortage of raw coffee beans for processing export factories.

On the international front, Robusta coffee prices on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (Liffe) also rose to USD 4,780 per ton, the highest in five years. Strong demand from European and Middle Eastern markets, which are major consumers of Robusta, combined with instability in major producing countries like Brazil and Indonesia, has pushed prices higher. However, experts warn of a potential technical correction as prices have risen too rapidly within a single quarter.

Vietnam's coffee exports in Q1 2025 are estimated at nearly USD 1 billion, up 23% year-on-year, according to the General Department of Customs. Robusta accounts for over 70% of export volume. Although export volume fell slightly by 5% due to limited supply, the value increased significantly due to higher selling prices. Companies such as Vinh Hiep Group and UCC VN have taken advantage of favorable margins by signing multiple forward contracts at preferential rates.

Forecasts from the Agency of Agricultural Processing and Market Development indicate that Robusta coffee prices will remain elevated at least until the end of June 2025, when the new harvest season begins. Investors should closely monitor crop developments in the Central Highlands and global warehousing inventory policies to devise appropriate trading strategies. The Vietnamese coffee market presents ample opportunities but also carries risks from price volatility and long-term climate change.