On October 15, 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) officially announced keeping the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% per year, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting its rate by 0.25 percentage points in its September meeting. This decision aims to control domestic inflationary pressures (expected at 3.5-4% for the full year 2025) and stabilize the VND/USD exchange rate amid global volatility.

On the stock market, the VN-Index recorded a slight decline of 0.3% to 1,285 points immediately after the news, with liquidity reaching VND 12,500 billion, lower than the 20-session average. The main reason comes from net selling pressure by foreign investors (VND 355 billion in the session) as the interest rate differential between VND and USD narrowed. Banking stocks (CTG, BID, VCB) fell 0.5-1%, reflecting concerns about capital costs.

However, the SBV's decision to keep rates stable also supports low deposit interest rates (5-6% per year), facilitating continued domestic capital flows. The VN-Index is trading around a P/E of 14.2 times, lower than the 5-year average of 15.8 times, offering opportunities for long-term investors. Industrial real estate stocks (KBC, SZG, GVR) continue to attract capital flows due to FDI expectations.

Experts from VietFinance.Asia suggest that in the short term, the market may undergo a consolidation adjustment around the 1,270-1,300 point level. Exchange rate pressure remains present as USD/VND stands at VND 25,200/USD (+2% from the beginning of the year). Investors should prioritize leading stocks with low reliance on foreign currency debt and a stable export foundation.