According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in Q1/2025 reached $1.2 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with the EU accounting for 45% of the market share. This growth is driven by the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which reduces import tariffs on processed coffee to 0%, providing a competitive advantage for domestic enterprises.

However, Vietnam's coffee industry still faces challenges in product quality. According to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan, an agricultural expert, Vietnam's coffee is predominantly Robusta (90%), while global demand is shifting toward high-quality Arabica. To capitalize on the EVFTA, businesses need to invest in deep processing, build brands, and meet EU green standards such as the anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR).

Additionally, climate change and shrinking cultivation areas are putting pressure on supply. Domestic robusta coffee prices have risen 30% over the past year due to supply shortages, but exporters are concerned about stability. Investors need to closely monitor EU market developments, regional inflation control policies, and logistics costs.

VietFinance.Asia recommends that investors consider coffee industry stocks such as Vietnam Coffee Corporation (Vinacafe) or export processing enterprises with strong ESG strategies. In the short term, the price uptrend is favorable, but risks from CNY/VND exchange rate fluctuations and global inflation need to be tightly managed.